Tim Reazor
Chief Investment Strategist
NorAm Asset Management
Oh the drama… everyone starts out their blogs, newsletters, videos and television shows with “this is the most important thing ever…” to get you to read, listen, etc. Most of the time it’s useless drama that sucks you in and doesn’t make or save you money.
This week is different my friends.
This week there are 16 substantial economic reports that all have the potential to propel the markets higher, or drive them lower. On Monday morning pending home sales are reported at 10:00 am Eastern. At 10:30 am the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey is released.
Pay attention to Tuesday. This is when the fun really starts. The FOMC meeting begins; S&P Case Shiller is reported as well as our consumer confidence. The housing reports loom large this week. The market has been planning on 3% GDP. Housing in the United States is a large part of our GDP. If these numbers disappoint it will be a hard road to a 3% growth rate. If we can’t make a 3% growth rate then the markets most likely will correct further.
The GDP mystery won’t last for long. GDP is reported on Wednesday morning at 8:30 am. Again if this number is below 3% there will be fireworks in the markets. Both equities and bonds will be affected. Add in the employment cost index report, Chicago PMI and the FOMC meeting results and I think Wednesday sets the tone for the rest of the quarter and the end of summer.
Thursday doesn’t relent – motor vehicle sales are released, jobless claims are reported, as well as personal income. The latter will have a huge affect on the retail sector. To cap a busy Thursday, Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaks, PMI for manufacturing is released as well as construction spending.
Had enough? Friday is the game. Our employment situation is reported on. The implications are self-explanatory.
How should you position yourself this week? Be defensive and don’t guess. Remember that the obvious trade is often times the wrong one. The markets aren’t always rational. As you know, the markets often react in a manner that doesn’t makes sense in the face of the reports that are released.
The easiest way to be bearish and defensive is through the use of bonds. The easiest way to invest in bonds is to use the bond ETF TLT.
If you want my extended thoughts on thoughts on the markets please listen to my radio show from this past Saturday – http://www.thewallstreetshuffle.com/
If you have any questions or would like to join us for our trading / investing open house please email me – Tim.Reazor@NorAmAsset.com
Best Regards,
Tim
The information presented is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Opinions and information expressed are based upon information considered reliable. However, factors are constantly changing and should not be relied upon. You need to do and verify your own research.
Moreover, no reader or listener should assume that any information or discussion presented serves as personalized investment advice from NorAm Asset Management, Inc. or from any other investment professional, and is not an offer of solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. You need to have your own, individual investment advice suitable for your personal situation.
Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated are not guaranteed.
