Tim Reazor
Chief Investment Strategist
NorAm Asset Management
This is going to be a tough week to gauge the conviction of the market to the upside or downside. There’s not a lot of economic data coming out this week to sway the markets one way or the other. Jobless claims and new home sales are on the docket for Thursday and Friday, but I’m not expecting any fireworks. The wildcard this week is all the Fed speak taking place. They are a number of Fed presidents + the Fed Chair speaking. It’ll take one misstep while explaining policy to send the markets lower. Conversely, more dovish talk could cause the markets to move higher.
To see where I think markets are headed, get my watch list and learn about my weekly income strategy watch this video – http://vimeo.com/95561967
If you missed this week’s Wall Street Shuffle you missed a lot – click here to listen – www.thewallstreetshuffle.
If you want to come into my office and trade with me send me an email. It would be a pleasure to meet, bond and research together – tim.reazor@NorAmAsset.com
I often talk stocks and markets on twitter – you can follow me by searching for my handle – @TJReazor
I hope today’s newsletter helped.
Best Regards,
Tim
The information presented is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Opinions and information expressed are based upon information considered reliable. However, factors are constantly changing and should not be relied upon. You need to do and verify your own research.
Moreover, no reader or listener should assume that any information or discussion presented serves as personalized investment advice from NorAm Asset Management, Inc. or from any other investment professional, and is not an offer of solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. You need to have your own, individual investment advice suitable for your personal situation.
Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated are not guaranteed.
One of the hardest things to do in trading and investing is properly positioning yourself short in the market. Why is this so hard? It’s hard because of what you can’t control. Sure you “know” that the market is heading lower J What you don’t know is when. You have to position yourself before it’s obvious to everyone else. Better said; you have to prepare to short while the bulls are running right next to you.
You also have to deal with the following when navigating the shorting landmines…economic reports and how the market interprets the information, stocks hitting extensions to the downside and bouncing higher… like PCLN today, which hit the 200-day simple moving average. You’ll have to navigate market sentiment – is it time to bounce higher? Just what does it mean to be oversold or overbought and who makes that decision and on what timeframe?
Get the picture?
So what can you do to make life easier on yourself? Be in markets that are not stocks – such as the crude oil market and the bond market. You’ll want to harvest profits when crude and bonds reach price targets/extensions. I’ll cover this in my weekend video. You’ll also want to add when these markets pull back to the 8-day exponential moving average – like crude did today.
When I say “add” I mean continue to trade the size that makes sense for you. Size is your weapon… it controls your emotions and let’s you sleep at night. Always ask… what if it doesn’t go up? Where are you going to cut crude free is it goes lower? For that try two closes in a row below the 21-day EMA.
If you’d like to review my past ideas or get caught up on the crude/USO trade click here.
If you want to come into my office and trade with me send me an email (tim.reazor@noramasset.com). It would be a pleasure to meet, bond and commiserate together.
I often talk stocks and markets on twitter – you can follow me @TJReazor
I hope tonight’s newsletter helped.
Best Regards,
Tim
The information presented is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Opinions and information expressed are based upon information considered reliable. However, factors are constantly changing and should not be relied upon. You need to do and verify your own research. Moreover, no reader or listener should assume that any information or discussion presented serves as personalized investment advice from NorAm Asset Management, Inc. or from any other investment professional, and is not an offer of solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. You need to have your own, individual investment advice suitable for your personal situation. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated are not guaranteed.
Tim Reazor
Chief Investment Strategist
NorAm Asset Management
I wrote yesterday about my bullish stance on USO. In this newsletter I want to talk about how to handle USO if you’re in it. If crude oil continues on its current trajectory I’d look for USO to retest last September’s $39.54 high. If crude clears that level $42.00 may be in the cards.
The move won’t happen right away. If crude pulls back USO will pull back. The trade is still valid as long as USO holds the 8-day exponential moving average or 21-day EMA. It’s important that you understand the following point. If USO hits $39 before pulling back take profits. Why? Thirty-nine dollars is an area of resistance. USO will most likely pullback at this level. You can reload on the pullback if it holds the 8 or 21 EMAs that I referenced above.
If you want to come into my office and trade with me send me an email. It would be a pleasure to meet, bond and commiserate together – tim.reazor@NorAmAsset.com
I often talk stocks and markets on twitter – you can follow me by searching for my handle – @TJReazor
I hope tonight’s newsletter helped.
Best Regards,
Tim
The information presented is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Opinions and information expressed are based upon information considered reliable. However, factors are constantly changing and should not be relied upon. You need to do and verify your own research.
Moreover, no reader or listener should assume that any information or discussion presented serves as personalized investment advice from NorAm Asset Management, Inc. or from any other investment professional, and is not an offer of solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. You need to have your own, individual investment advice suitable for your personal situation.
Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated are not guaranteed.
Tim Reazor
Chief Investment Strategist
NorAm Asset Management
If you’ve been worn out by the back and forth of this market I might have your cure. Look at this chart of USO. Examine the nice cup shape at the end – it’s a sight of beauty. This is what you want to be investing in. You want this sight picture. Whether you’re looking at stocks or commodities; your sight picture should look the same. Is what you’re “long” sitting above all the key moving averages which are the 8, 21 and 34 exponential moving averages. If not you’re most likely having a rough go of things.
This chop isn’t going to end anytime soon. Have you be putting off a paper loss because you’re waiting for your stock to come back? How is that working out? Did your stock go up one day only to fade the next for no rhyme or reason? You most likely are starting to lose patience and more importantly your confidence.
Try doing this tomorrow – sell a losing position. Better yet, break form and nip a small loss in the bud before a 5 ‘percenter’ grows into a 15 ‘percenter.’ Then do the following … buy something that looks like USO – btw – this is not advice – it’s instructional only – and handle it better. Write down 3 mistakes you made with your last several trades… and now don’t repeat them with your new position.
What’s my point? You have to put yourself in a position to succeed. You won’t find success in the markets if you’re waiting for good to come out of bad… you’ll spend so much time watching your laggard that you’ll miss your USO.
If you want to come into my office and trade with me send me an email. It would be a pleasure to meet, bond and commiserate together – tim.reazor@NorAmAsset.com
I often talk stocks and markets on twitter – you can follow me by searching for my handle – @TJReazor
I hope today’s newsletter helped.
Best Regards,
Tim
The information presented is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Opinions and information expressed are based upon information considered reliable. However, factors are constantly changing and should not be relied upon. You need to do and verify your own research.
Moreover, no reader or listener should assume that any information or discussion presented serves as personalized investment advice from NorAm Asset Management, Inc. or from any other investment professional, and is not an offer of solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. You need to have your own, individual investment advice suitable for your personal situation.
Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated are not guaranteed.
Tim Reazor
Chief Investment Strategist
NorAm Asset Management
I feel as though I’m stuck in The Clash song…Should I Stay or Should I go. Here’s the first line of the song that describes this market to a tee – Darlin’ you got to let me know… Should I stay or should I go?
Like The Clash I’m wondering if I should STAY slightly bearish or Go to the bullish camp… as the lyrics also contain this gem… “this indecision’s buggin’ me” and this line brings me to the point of this newsletter… Don’t become frustrated.
Your next successful trade is right around the corner. The problem is that you’re not sure if it’s a long trade or a trade with a bearish tint. That is why during markets such as this one I’m a huge advocate of utilizing a credit spread strategy.
The credit spread is forgiving because you can be wrong on direction of the stock and still make money. I’ve written about this type of trade before and covered it extensively on the radio show I share with Danny Stewart, The Wall Street Shuffle.
If you’d like to learn more about this strategy send me an email or give me a call. We can meet in my office or online and cover the basics of credit spreads and how add this to your repertoire of income producing strategies. Tim.Reazor@NorAmAsset.com or 855.Real.Wealth
Best Regards,
Tim
The information presented is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Opinions and information expressed are based upon information considered reliable. However, factors are constantly changing and should not be relied upon. You need to do and verify your own research.
Moreover, no reader or listener should assume that any information or discussion presented serves as personalized investment advice from NorAm Asset Management, Inc. or from any other investment professional, and is not an offer of solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. You need to have your own, individual investment advice suitable for your personal situation.
Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated are not guaranteed.
Tim Reazor
Chief Investment Strategist
NorAm Asset Management
There are 14 economic reports this week that will have direct effect on the markets. Stocks will be affected, bonds will be affected and so will the gold and silver markets. You’ll need a deft hand to navigate these murky waters.
If you’re in equities you’ll want to have one hand on the sell trigger and a strong watch-list at the ready. That’s right I said watch-list. This market is at an apex. It could rip higher if Wall Street perceives this week’s economic information to be positive. The opposite is also true. We could enter a deeper correction based on this week’s economic data.
I think the best way to play the market this week is being in asset classes that appear to be unaffected by the market. Crude appears to be this asset class. My weekly update video expands on this concept and gives you structure for investing week. I also include several ideas for your watch-list. Click this link to watch the video – http://vimeo.com/94713532
If you’d like to talk stocks and markets please shoot me an email or give me a call – Tim.Reazor@NorAmAsseet.com or 855-Real-Wealth
Best Regards,
Tim
The information presented is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Opinions and information expressed are based upon information considered reliable. However, factors are constantly changing and should not be relied upon. You need to do and verify your own research.
Moreover, no reader or listener should assume that any information or discussion presented serves as personalized investment advice from NorAm Asset Management, Inc. or from any other investment professional, and is not an offer of solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. You need to have your own, individual investment advice suitable for your personal situation.
Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated are not guaranteed.
The following is why I watch the markets all day. By paying attention to the market internals I am able to assess whatever situations arise and act accordingly for our clients. Look at the attached chart. This is why this market is so hard. As regular readers of my newsletter know bonds and Yen are correlated assets. This means that when Yen and bonds go higher equity markets like the S&P go lower – except for Thursday.
Bonds, Yen the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq all moved higher Thursday morning after a brief equity sell off. Divergences are bad for the markets…if all of the correlated assets are moving higher typically equities will be the first to break lower. That didn’t happen around noon on Thursday. Right around noon central bonds broke lower to the downside unexpectedly. This shook the bond ETF TLT. What didn’t happen is what is the most interesting.
Equities didn’t rally on the break lower in bonds. This is crucial. If this were a true rally in stocks, equities would have rallied higher right away on higher volume. Volume was bone dry. If equities rallied and bonds continued their plunge I would have wanted to sell our bond position.
Realizing that volume was low and equities were not moving higher in the shop we decided to hold onto our TLT position. For the day this was the proper decision. Bonds climbed higher into the close and stocks capitulated lower after being up nicely for most of the day.
What’s the point?
You have to take in all of the gauges of the market. You can’t act on one piece of information alone. Having situational awareness to all facets of the market is crucial in this environment. This is not a trending market – which means that this market doesn’t forgive mistakes. Rooting decisions in fact and not emotion leads to actions that are informed, not panicked which leads to less mistakes.
I hope this anecdote helps you in your own trading and investing. If you’d like to talk stocks and markets please shoot me an email or give me a call – Tim.Reazor@NorAmAsseet.com or 855-Real-Wealth
Best Regards,
Tim
The information presented is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Opinions and information expressed are based upon information considered reliable. However, factors are constantly changing and should not be relied upon. You need to do and verify your own research.
Moreover, no reader or listener should assume that any information or discussion presented serves as personalized investment advice from NorAm Asset Management, Inc. or from any other investment professional, and is not an offer of solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. You need to have your own, individual investment advice suitable for your personal situation.
Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated are not guaranteed.
Tim Reazor
Chief Investment Strategist
NorAm Asset Management
It’s happening, well maybe, the market is poised to sell off. Will it? Now that’s the question. I covered specific levels that the Nasdaq and S&P and where several other stocks may fall to this week in the following video. Click the link to watch. http://vimeo.com/93677920
I want to update you to the gold trade that I discussed in last night’s newsletter. Gold is still poised to move higher. You haven’t missed the move.
The easiest way to partake in this move is by buying shares of the gold ETF GLD. You could buy calls, but that takes more active management on your part. I’d use a 45 to 60 day time frame and calls with a delta of 70 at a minimum.
If you’re looking to play the bearish side of this market use bonds. The easiest way to play bonds is though the bond ETF TLT. Again, you could buy the shares or buy calls using a 45 to 60 day time frame and calls with a delta of 70 at a minimum.
If you’d like to talk about rule based investing, where the markets are headed or if you would like to join us for our trading / investing open house please email me – Tim.Reazor@NorAmAsset.com
Best Regards,
Tim
The information presented is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Opinions and information expressed are based upon information considered reliable. However, factors are constantly changing and should not be relied upon. You need to do and verify your own research.
Moreover, no reader or listener should assume that any information or discussion presented serves as personalized investment advice from NorAm Asset Management, Inc. or from any other investment professional, and is not an offer of solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. You need to have your own, individual investment advice suitable for your personal situation.
Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated are not guaranteed.
Tim Reazor
Chief Investment Strategist
NorAm Asset Management
Gold found a bottom recently at the $1,288 price level. This was a key level to hold. After the anemic GPD report last week, coupled with a non-farm jobs- report that included the lowest labor participation rate in 30 years – gold is now off on running.
Running to where?
Gold needs to now hold the $1,300 price level and conquer the $1,315 price level. If this occurs the stage is set for a move up to $1,332. If the perception of the economy gets worse than gold has the potential to run up to $1,350.
What’s the play?
The easiest way to partake in this move is by buying shares of the gold ETF GLD. You could buy calls, but that takes more active management on your part. I’d use a 45 to 60 day time frame and calls with a delta of 70 at a minimum.
I’ll keep you posted on the move in Gold this month in this newsletter and on twitter. You can follow me there by searching for my handle @TJReazor
If you’d like to talk about rule based investing, where the markets are headed or if you would like to join us for our trading / investing open house please email me – Tim.Reazor@NorAmAsset.com
Best Regards,
Tim
The information presented is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Opinions and information expressed are based upon information considered reliable. However, factors are constantly changing and should not be relied upon. You need to do and verify your own research.
Moreover, no reader or listener should assume that any information or discussion presented serves as personalized investment advice from NorAm Asset Management, Inc. or from any other investment professional, and is not an offer of solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. You need to have your own, individual investment advice suitable for your personal situation.
Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated are not guaranteed.
Tim Reazor
Chief Investment Strategist
NorAm Asset Management
Da Nyet, Navernoe is Russian for yes, no, maybe, which describes this market to a tee. Will this market go higher? Yes, no and maybe.
I think this market is going to correct. That doesn’t mean it will, I just think it is going to head lower. We’ve come up against resistance too many times and haven’t plowed forward. Eventually, like the pop-top on a can of soda, if you bend it up and down repeatedly the metal wears thin and breaks. Every time we come up to resistance on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq and failed to break through we’re one step closer to correction. Here’s why…
Every attempted rally takes energy (institutional volume). Every time we fail and have to reattempt a rally we need more and more energy, but every reattempt actually has less energy because institutional enthusiasm wanes. Eventually the attempted rallies are so putrid that it’s just easier to fail.
This is where I see us sitting in the markets – attempting to break through, but even a “good” jobs number couldn’t get the rally ignited on Friday… so this week it will take even more energy from a very tired and energy depleted group of institutional investors to get the job done. And this I feel is not very likely.
Now add in the stress of Russia and Ukraine and the pop-top gets even weaker.
To listen to my extended thoughts on the markets click here – http://www.thewallstreetshuffle.com/ My radio show from this Saturday contains my longer form thoughts on the market, my watch-list and my rules for investing.
My weekend update video brings my thoughts to life pictorially. Click here to watch – http://vimeo.com/93677920
If you’d like to talk about rule based investing, where the markets are headed or if you would like to join us for our trading / investing open house please email me – Tim.Reazor@NorAmAsset.com
Best Regards,
Tim
The information presented is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Opinions and information expressed are based upon information considered reliable. However, factors are constantly changing and should not be relied upon. You need to do and verify your own research.
Moreover, no reader or listener should assume that any information or discussion presented serves as personalized investment advice from NorAm Asset Management, Inc. or from any other investment professional, and is not an offer of solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. You need to have your own, individual investment advice suitable for your personal situation.
Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated are not guaranteed.
